有分析说下周欧美股市和银行可能会出现大恐慌。我们注意到该信息来源是因为它曾在汶川地震前三十六小时发布了特大地震预警，但没有点明在中国。 它是一种由计算机报警与人工解译相结合的预警机制。对此消息来源的可信度我们正在观察。特别是几个关键的时间（下周，10月15，10月下旬， 感恩节，圣诞节等）。目前金融形势处于十分危险的临界状态，任何局部扰动都可能激发一场大危机。为了吸取汶川地震漏报的教训， 我们给大家提个醒。望大家近期特别注意投资安全。并一定要准备充足的现金。欧美银行可能会出现挤兑。望身在欧美的网友有备无患。宁可备而无用，不可用而无备。
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
"NYSE Announces Fourth-Quarter 2008 Circuit-Breaker Levels
NEW YORK , September 30, 2008 -- The New York Stock Exchange will implement new circuit-breaker collar trigger levels for fourth-quarter 2008 effective Wednesday, October 1, 2008. Circuit-breaker points represent the thresholds at which trading is halted marketwide for single-day declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Circuit-breaker levels are set quarterly as 10, 20 and 30-percent of the DJIA average closing values of the previous month, rounded to the nearest 50 points.
In fourth-quarter 2008, the 10, 20 and 30-percent decline levels, respectively, in the DJIA will be as follows:
Level 1 Halt A 1,100-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.
Level 2 Halt A 2,200-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.
Level 3 Halt A 3,350-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs.
Background: Circuit-breakers are calculated quarterly. The percentage levels were first implemented in April 1998 and are adjusted on the first trading day of each quarter. In 2008, those dates are Jan. 2, April 1, July 1 and Oct. 1.
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Thanks to my friend Robin Landry, an independent (and like thinking) broker in Shawnee, Oklahoma, for sending that along. You may recall that I told you Robin move most of his managed accounts into cash about 2,000 points above this week's closing levels back in June or July.
I spoke with Robin after the close on Friday and his outlook for the market is similar to mine: We could see the market continue its decline next week with the potential to drop in the area of 9,700 on the Dow, OR we could see the bottom collapse there and continue down to Dow 7,400. From there, we might then see a highly inflationary B Wave return to the kind of levels we are at now, but in that wave, Landry says he wouldn't be surprised to see gold and silver, along with energy stocks, do extremely well.
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OK, so here's my personal take on what I've planned for going forward.
I anticipate that early next week, the stock market will decline to under the 10,000 level and that, in turn, may spur already nervous (and un-prepared!) people to panic and begin bank runs. That phrase has been popping up a fair amount lately with stories about how "Wachovia faced 'silent' bank run; FDIC forced sale" this week, an opinion piece in Forbes this week from Nouriel Roubini says expect: "Next: The Mother of All Bank Runs?"
Against the background of a $350-billion Fed move this week and a $700-billion banker bailout by the CONgress, for a total of $1-trillion dollars spent - or about 7% of U.S.A. GDP in a single week, the NY Times News Service carried in today's Idaho Statesman understat3es thing by saying "Crisis could be at Global Tipping Point", which is exactly what the predictive linguistics have been screaming at us for more than a year now - hence my advice to friends and readers to 'flee paper assets' and get properly defensive in posture, spreading risk between banks, precious metals, physical goods, and a TreasuryDirect account, in order to maximize personal lifestyle retention potential through this period.
I anticipate that on Monday or Tuesday something will act as the 'kindling effect" and will lead to a massive stock market decline. I've been putting a list of potential 'sparks' together that could set off the conflagration so here's my 'short list' to which you can add your own:
Fannie and Freddie assets issues come to the fore again on Monday and if there's a collapse there, things could steam-roller with the financial snowball already underway. Virtually no one in the US media is reporting what happened this week in Greece, which was forced to issue government guarantees to banks after "panic withdrawals" on Wednesday - a euphemism for 'bank runs' broke out.
Public workers in the State of California may be facing insolvency because short-term lending has dried up . In warning that a $7-billion injection from the government may be needed, governor Schwarzenegger says "California and other states may be unable to obtain the necessary level of financing to maintain government operations and may be forced to turn to the federal treasury for short-term financing."
My personal pick is that what will happen on Monday will be that the derivatives market will drive a stock market collapse. Let me explain why: First, you need to understand how the general "settlement day" issues will work, and the Financial Times has a good summary of the issues here.
A note from a very well informed source at the UN Geneva sent me a terse note today that simply says "There will be fewer banks standing in Euroland on Monday morning." That will compound/confound things if right.
What no one is reporting (so why don't we?) is that even investment houses that think they have a clean derivatives book could find that they sudden have huge cash calls on Monday which could trigger panic selling of stocks and other assets. The reason is this: When certain kinds of instruments fail, the current owner is presented with a settlement demand. But, if that first/current owner is not able to meet the settlement demand, then there is the potential fore recourse back to a previous owner. And then, if that owner doesn't have money, another layer of the onion may be peeled back, such that I honestly expect that the unintended consequences will be a cascading collapse next week. What's worse? The Bailout Bill passed on Friday will not be able to stop it because the mechanisms for Treasury and the Fed to bail is not spelled out. My term for it is "Crashcading Collapse" - when people who thought they were good have to suddenly have a fire sale of assets to raise cash.
Once a meltdown of the stock market gets underway, I expect that the contagion would likely spread into the general public with panic withdrawals from US banks beginning, and that in turn, could trigger banking restrictions. This is the worst-case scenario. (Next to a terrorist attack, of course).
Next, in order to maintain public order during those kinds of events, I expect the Bush Administration argue the need to 'enforce public order' and thus, some of the rumors of pending 'martial law' that have come from both the Internet and some Congresspersons, could come to pass. It will be argued on the one hand that the events really do fit into a conspiratorial mold on the one hand, but a logical sequence and response by government on the other.
Then, on about October 15th, we get some other kind of 'military' aspect to the events about to unfold, and if I recall right, another such thing around October 25-27 - someplace in there.
Then we get a break of a few weeks, although just as people think "Ha! Things are getting back to normal..." then wham, along with come more or less a lock-down of financial systems in November (around the 27th/Thanksgiving period if memory serves right.
And then, just as we get through that, we anticipate (again, remember this is all based on some pretty far-out linguistic concepts here) the 'double earthquakes of December which may (or may not) be impacting on the US mainland. There's some drift in the data in the more recent processing.
So, come the end of January of next year, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the markets down around 7,400 on the Dow and then for Robin Landry's hoped-for "B" wave to begin, although it would likely peak in mid 2009 as the "Summer of Hell" breaks out thanks to continuing/record foreclosures on homes and continuously rising unemployment, which will be used by government for a further expansion of its powers over citizens, instead of what the Framers had in mind - government that was responsive to (and smaller than) the general population. That ship sailed long ago, eh?
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I don't know about you, but when the stock market collapses 157-points into the close, as it did on Friday after a trillion dollars was promised this week, I do get a little anxious about events to come next week, especially when we've been talking about that date for months and months based on the work of our learned colleagues with the linguistic time machine.
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