http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6952.html
It appears that there is a common refrain going around the investment community. It goes something like this:
"Gold should be doing better, and, since it isn't, I am not going to buy it"
Investors who believe this are making the mistake of thinking COMEX gold is the same as real physical gold. It is not.
COMEX gold is a form of debt. It involves one party promising to produce gold (money) to another at a future date. Like all forms of debt, a COMEX futures contract is only as good as the counterparty behind the contract. Right now, because of low margin requirements, sellers of gold futures only have enough gold to cover 10% of outstanding contracts stored in COMEX warehouses. Considering that the biggest sellers of gold futures contract are insolvent financial institutions, it is obvious that COMEX gold has enormous counterparty risks . If even a quarter of outstanding contracts asked for physical delivery, it would be enough to guarantee a default. Since a financial collapse would actually creates the risk total default (insolvent banks can't produce the gold or cash), COMEX gold fails miserably as a safe haven . This is why COMEX gold prices are falling, while physical gold is disappearing from the market place
Because of scarcity, physical gold is selling at an enormous premium to gold spot price (which is set by COMEX). How big a premium? Well, on eBay 2008 gold buffalo are trading between 300 to 400 over spot price. That is a 50% premium. The enormous premiums being paid in the physical market means that a large number of December gold contract holders are likely to request delivery. A volume, whether it causes defaults or not, is likely to change the marketplace perception of gold and cause a rush of into a physical gold plagued by shortages. Gold will skyrocket over 2000 in a matter of days.
I am not the only person who believes COMEX gold futures are on the verge of collapse. I urge you to watch this video (skip to 11 minute mark) and read the extract below to see what others are saying about paper gold.
( red emphasis mine)
Why Gold Is Dropping When It Shouldn't
by Alex Wallenwein
- and what it all means
Why is gold dropping right now when anyone in their sane mind would expect it to rise? The simple answer to this question is, " because Comex-gold isn't gold " - and because it deceptively pretends to be 'the' price-setter for real gold.
Gold is gold, paper is paper, and "Comex gold" is nothing but paper masquerading as gold while simultaneously pretending to be the price-setting medium for actual gold in the world. Now, finally, Comex-gold is in the process of being unmasked.
The real supply and demand determinants for Comex gold are not actual gold investors but fund managers . Fund managers are inextricably intertwined with the world of contract-based credit instruments. They use bet on Comex gold contracts to hedge their other (currently horrendously losing) bets with something they all, in their in-bred belief in paper markets, believe will 'go up' in value while everything else is going down.
However, these very same fund managers and their paper-bound investment psychology are the exclusive reason why Comex gold is dropping in these times when everyone (including fund managers) expects gold to rise. As already stated, though, and as they now finally realize to their own dismay, Comex-gold just isn't gold - and that causes even further selling.
Two Losing Bets, Compounded
Fund managers' other bets are losing money fast, now, so they need to raise cash to keep up the overall value of their respective funds, so they can earn their management bonuses and avoid getting booted for lack of relative performance. Guess what they cash in on? The very same Comex paper-gold they mistakenly bought as a 'hedge', of course.
Meanwhile, real investors in real gold are enjoying their shopping spree - except that the spree turned into a treasure hunt as the shelves and display cases of gold dealers look more and more like the supermarket shelves in the old Soviet Union - bare .
This is the only 'bare-market' in real gold the world will see for a long, long time to come.
With this split, this disconnect, between Comex illusion and gold reality, one thing or the other will have to give, and it won't be physical gold that gives.
My reaction: I am certain the US is less than a month away from a currency collapse. The fed and treasury are not even taking the time to think at this point: they are just throwing money and guarantees at each new problem that pops up without worrying about the consequence. Since no one can imagine a currency collapse, there isn't the political will to take the painful steps needed to prevent it (reign in fed and let institutions fail). The forces and trends behind the financial collapse are too powerful to stop.
If you have wealth and don't own gold, then you will soon be poor.
By Eric deCarbonnel
Eric is the Editor of Market Skeptics
评论